The US first persuaded the secretive Central Bank of Libya (CBL) to open its books, with financial services firm Deloitte commissioned to produce an audit.
A Libyan peculiarity is that, while the GNA is nominally in charge of the CBL, the bank refuses to disclose its balance sheet of foreign reserves to them or anyone else.
Many observers, including both governments, doubt those reserves are as high as the World Bank’s estimate of $87bn, according to Petroleum Economist.
US officials take a view that, before Libyans can decide how to divide oil revenue, they must first know genuine figures.
Petroleum Economist said that whether the oil recovery can be maintained and expanded or will succumb to fresh shutdowns depends on a series of hurdles.
It added that the first is whether the UN can translate the ceasefire into a long-term political deal. It is convening peace talks in Tunis on 9 November, hoping Libya’s myriad factions agree on elections for a new, yet-to-be-defined united government.
A second problem is that the revenue-sharing commission agreement—Haftar’s trigger for lifting the blockade—has collapsed. Most of the GNA has rejected the deal, despite Maiteeq’s support. Diplomats hope a new revenue-sharing mechanism can be agreed upon at the Tunis talks.
Thirdly, the ceasefire calls for foreign forces to exit Libya by 23 January. Neither Turkey nor Russia, the countries with the largest forces deployed, have signaled willingness to comply.