A steep economic downturn and massive coronavirus rescue spending will nearly quadruple the fiscal 2020 US budget deficit to a record $3.8 trillion, a staggering 18.7% of US economic output, a Washington-based watchdog group said on Monday.

Releasing new budget estimates based on spending mandated by law, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) also projected that the fiscal 2021 deficit would reach $2.1 trillion in 2021, and average $1.3 trillion through 2025 as the economy recovers from damage caused by coronavirus-related shutdowns.

The estimates follow the US Treasury’s report on Friday of a $744 billion budget deficit in the six months through March 30, which included minimal impact from the outbreak of the new coronavirus. Officials said significant budget impacts from spending and reduced revenues would appear in April’s budget results.