Mamdouh Salameh, an international oil economist and visiting professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, said in an exclusive interview with Anadolu Agency that Libya may be able to maintain its production at over half a million b/d until the end of the year if there is no disruption or a blockade of the major oilfields and pumping stations.
Salameh said Libya needs time to repair the damage inflicted on its oil infrastructure by the civil war and maintain its producing oilfields and pumping stations, many of which have been idle for more than six years.
Political risk and oil analyst Jose Chalhoub said this increase ultimately depends on the political stability and security risks as well as how these extra barrels and exports from Libya would be handled by the markets and the rest of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing nations, a group known as OPEC+.
According to Salameh, a revival of Libya’s oil production to 2011 levels of 1.6 million bpd will definitely impact the global oil market and exert pressure on oil prices. He predicted that it may even cause oil prices to slide by $2-$3 per barrel.
Chalhoub indicated that Libya’s extra production would have geopolitical connotations given that European markets, especially France, Italy, Spain and Germany are key markets for Russia and Libya.