Libya could soon return to the world oil market in a big way, if the agreement between the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) in the East of the country is maintained.

Libya’s production plummeted from 1.2 million bpd in January to under 200,000 bpd in recent months, after tribal militias and the LNA blockaded key ports on the East of the country – Brega, Zuetina, and Hariga — in an attempt to starve the UN-backed GNA of revenue. Should the conditional agreement stick, Libya could see production reach 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) as soon as this weekend and up to 1,000,000 bpd in the fourth quarter, per Bloomberg.

According to the media, the deal was brokered directly between General Haftar’s son Khaled and GNA Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteeq, who is heading the Peace Commission. Per the agreement, the LNA ended its blockade of key oil export infrastructure mid last month. It also provides for the commencement of the Commission to oversee oil revenues and ensure equitable distribution of resources, as well as a number of specific measures to stabilize the financial situation in Libya.

The agreement, although only intended for a one-month period so far, contains elements of more permanent arrangements that benefit both the GNA and the Western region LNA, as well as the tribes that inhabit all areas of Libya: the launch of the exchange rate adjustment mechanism of the dinar, including leveling the exchange rate throughout the country; the opening of a system of national payments between Libyan banks; and more. Maiteeq called the agreement concluded under the new Commission (“the Libyan-Libyan initiative”).

If the parties fulfill their obligations to improve the socio-economic situation of the Libyan people, it will increase the authority and popularity of General Haftar as well as GNA Vice Premier Ahmed Maiteeq, the architect of the agreement and head of the Commission. Mr. Maiteeq is a longtime businessman and prominent politician — he hails from a wealthy family and was elected Prime Minister in 2015. With the new agreement holding, Maiteeq has achieved what current GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj has been unable to accomplish for many months. It is still unclear whether al-Sarraj will sign off on the deal, however, as he is maneuvering to remain a power-broker after stepping down this fall.