A few dozen Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group could have been transferred from Libya to Ukraine, where at least 1,500-2,000 militiamen would remain.
Three close different Libyan sources confirmed that at least 1,500 thousand Wagner mercenaries are still present in Libya.
Russian mercenaries entered Libya during the 2019-2020 conflict with the forces of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army.
In a recent press interview, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly stated that “the Wagner Group was invited to Libya by the legitimate parliament based in Tobruk on a commercial basis”, that is, for a fee.
According to the latest report by the UN Panel of Experts, about 2,000 fighters remained in Libya with Pantsir S-1 anti-aircraft defense systems, MiG-29 fighters and Su-24 tactical bombers.
A Libyan source in Tunisia said that “5000 Russians and Syrians,” is the number of Wagner members present in Libya, while two other sources in Tripoli spoke of “1500-2000” and “more than 2,000,” respectively. What is certain is that the group Wagner continues to keep its men in Libya, as a Russian bodyguard was filmed protecting Haftar during a mass bath marking Eid al-Fitr, in Benghazi, a few days later.
Jalal Harchaoui, a researcher specializing in Libyan affairs, said that “Russia took control of four major military bases in Libya before February 24, 2022 (the date of the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine). Today, Russia still controls the same four major military bases in Libya.”
The bases run by the Russians are Brak in southwestern Libya, Jufra (central-south), Al-Qardabiya (central-north), Al-Khadim (northeast).
“In other words, there was no major withdrawal of Russian personnel from Libya following the war in Ukraine, but only modest adjustments,” Harchaoui continued.
The Russian presence in the North African country today must be inserted into the context of a violent struggle between two rival alliances, on the one hand, the Tripoli-based, internationally recognized but discouraged government of national unity of interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, and on the other hand, the Government of National Stability appointed by the Tobruk House of Representatives headed by Fathi Bashagha.
The outgoing Dbeibeh controls the capital, Tripoli, and many areas of Tripoli, which is the most densely populated area in the country that is increasingly exposed to armed clashes and disputes between rival armed groups, while the Bashagha government, backed by the Parliament of the East and General Haftar, controls the oil wells in Cyrenaica and Fezzan, as well as government buildings in Benghazi (east), Sirte (central north) and Sebha (southwest).
For several days, oil production in the OPEC member was halved due to the blockade of anti-Dbeibeh protesters, amid fears that Russian mercenaries may be behind the blockade of the wells.
“I don’t think Wagner is explicitly involved in the shutdowns, even if they serve Russian interests, both in Libya and elsewhere,” said Imad Eddin Badi, a Libya analyst at the Global Initiative to Combat Transnational Organized Crime, an international non-governmental organization based in Geneva.
According to Harchaoui, the Russians are losing about 350 men a day in Ukraine, and moving Wagner operatives from Libya to Ukraine appears to be a foolish move.
“Moving the Russians now from Libya to Ukraine will give Moscow an advantage that can be eliminated after six days,” the expert said. “Losing all influence in a strategically valuable region like Libya to gain six days in Ukraine is meaningless. That is why there was no major Russian withdrawal from Libya,” he said, adding that “the same goes for the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali, and Syria. All these missions continue. The men who must die on the front lines in Ukraine will be found elsewhere.”
Adapted from Nova Agency