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محمد أحمد لـ”فلوسنا”: سيناريوين لسعر النفط بعد سنتين.. – تبادل
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محمد أحمد لـ”فلوسنا”: سيناريوين لسعر النفط بعد سنتين..

أكد الخبير النفطي محمد أحمد خلال برنامج فلوسنا الذي يبث على قناة الوسط ومنصة تبادل، وجود مشكلة في موضوع الاستثمارات التي يمكن أن تسبب أزمة في العرض، متوقعا سيناريوين لسعر للنفط بعد سنتين، الأول حسب وكالة”أي إر إس” التي تتوقع 58 دولار للبرميل وهو سيناريو متفائل، والثاني حسب الأسواق الآجلة كسوق نيويورك الذي يتوقع 47 دولار للبرميل خلال سنة 2023، أي بـفارق تقريبا 11 دولار.

وافترض الخبير النفطي أنه بحلول سنة 2021 سنصل إلى انتاج 1 مليون برميل يوميا وعند سنة 2022 سنصل إلى1.200 مليون برميل في اليوم وعند سنة 2023 سيكون 1.400 مليون برميل، وهي الطاقة الانتاجية الخاصة بسنة 2010، مضيفا أنه لو تم سيناريو الأسعار المرتفعة سيتم تحقيق 58 مليار دولار في 3 سنوات، حيث سيتم تحقيق عجز في السنتين الأولتين، ثم في السنة 3 سيتحقق فائض، أي بعجز إجمالي 20 مايار دينار، أما السيناريو المتشائم فيتم تحقيق عجز بـ 36 مليار دينار في 3 سنوات.

وأقر محمد أحمد بوجود انخفاض في الطلب 10 مليون برميل في اليوم بعد حدوث صدمة كبيرة مؤخرا سنة 2020، مشيرا إلى توقعات لارتفاعه عن المستوى الحالى باسترداد جزئي يصل إلى 6 مليون برميل يوميا السنة القادمة، وخلص الخبير أنه بالنسبة لسوق النفط لو تحققت الأسعار المتفائلة، فنحن في وضع اقتصادي شبه مريح خلال 2023 إذا حافظنا على استقرار تدفق النفط.

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